May 1, 2007
One month ago the Irish bookies gave Alberto Gonzales a 90% chance of resigning before the end of 2007. On April 19 the Senate Judiciary Committee grilled our AG. Alberto looked weak and almost every pundit and even several Republicans called for his resignation. Yet the Irish bookies (AKA future probabilities trading market) say that Alberto now has only a 72% chance of resigning before the year’s end.
Why did the bookies say Alberto’s job security improved after his hearing?
Unlike the pundits, the Irish bookies have real money riding on their “investments.” They understand what is really going on here.
Big picture. The Democrats will launch unremitting attacks and investigations against everything connected to the White House. They can’t win the presidency just by surrendering to Iraq. They have to prove incompetence and corruption.
Gonzales, Chaney, Libby, Rumsfeld, and Rove are just part of the first Act. Anyone who thinks these hearings are fair didn’t see the demonstrators who continuously jeered Alberto Gonzales. They must have had more than 20 large signs in the hearing room. I thought those demonstrations were illegal. Chairman Leahy joked that there were too many demonstrators to throw out. As the public tires of watching their high tech stake burnings, we can expect new names to fill the arena. Wolfowitz will probably be forced out at the World Bank. Condi Rice will be called to testify. Rove’s missing e-mails will be investigated. Given Rove’s edgy wit if they are found the press will have a field day.
Little picture. Some White House people did get sloppy. I’m sure it never dawned on Rove that he would lose control of the Senate. Everyone is acting surprised that the Senate can play rough and will investigate every word said in the White House. Technology has also changed. Nixon was done in by secret tape recordings. Reagan survived Iran Contra because he was popular and Oliver North was well prepared. We all learned about computer proof notes, the new technology at those hearings, and even Oliver learned that when you erase a computer file you only erase the first character. The Bush hearing will be driven by another technological innovation: e-mail. E-mail could be the deadliest of all because most people who use e-mail assume it will always be private.
As much as our AG looked weak and was criticized for not remembering anything, that was exactly what he was supposed to do. Everyone who testifies before the Senate will look weak. The reason is they are all terrified of being convicted like Libby of trumped up perjury charges. Taking the fifth is not an option. The media will treat anyone taking the 5th as trying to hide a crime. Anyone who operates in the political world, even at our Texas legislature, may have 200 discussions with people on a given day and attend 20 meetings. Mortals cannot remember every conversation three weeks later, much less two years after they take place. Contradictions will be played on the evening news like some great crime.
The Democrats don’t want Alberto Gonzales. They want President Bush. It will be a lot easier to get Bush if Gonzales resigns and the Democrats get to choose his new Attorney General. For this reason the bookies are saying Gonzales’ chances of resigning are going down. And Bush’s chances of being impeached are going up. Democrats won’t use the impeachment word now. That will be their final act and they don’t want this word to peak too soon. The Irish bookies have no such constraint. They say the odds of George Bush being impeached are 1 in 8.
Royal Masset is one of a handful of people who built the Republican Party of Texas. Royal continues to serve Texas as a successful political consultant, author and speaker on policy issues.
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